News Archive
Turkey slow to learn $17bn quake lesson, experts warn
Released on 25/08/2008
The effects of a devastating earthquake in Turkey that killed thousands of people nine years ago are still felt keenly, but experts say politicians haven’t yet prepared the country for the next one, which is inevitable.
Seismic activity in the Marmara region reaches its apex at least every 30 years. There were strong quakes in 1943, 1957, and 1967 before the 7.4 one that struck at 3:02am on August 17, 1999, killing 17,840 people and causing billions of dollars of damage.
The collapse of 133,683 buildings made roughly 600,000 people homeless. Approximately 16 million people were affected by the earthquake in one way or another. Over 147,000 still live in provisional residences.
One expert, Emin Koramaz, who chairs the board of directors of the Chamber of Mechanical Engineers (UCTEA), told Turkey’s Zaman newspaper that the total cost of another earthquake would be $17 billion, according to estimates by the Turkish Industrialists and Businessmen’s Association (TÜSİAD). TÜSİAD is not alone in its estimation. The State Planning Organization (DPT) puts the figure at US$15-$19 billion and the World Bank at US$12-$17 billion.
Nor is the danger limited to Marmara. Mr Koramaz estimated that 98 per cent of the Turkish population, 98 per cent of industrial institutions and 95 per cent of dams are located along fault lines and earthquake-prone areas. Of the country’s 1,001 power plants, 419 fall on fault lines of first-degree danger.
Despite the huge risk, little has been done to prevent damage in future earthquakes, according to Gülay Altay, director of an earthquake research institute at Boğaziçi University.
He told Zaman: “Progress has been made since 1999. Scientific research at universities, coordinated by the government, is taking place. However, we think it is inadequate. People need to be made more aware of what to do during and after an earthquake.”
But the ruling AK Party maintains much has been done. İlhan Evcin, an AK official in Yalova, in the Marmara region, said that a new bill setting up an earthquake research commission has been prepared and submitted to Parliament.
“Yalova has since August 17, 1999, been undertaking serious efforts to minimize the damage in the event of an earthquake,” he told Zaman. “Many projects have been completed and many buildings seismically retrofitted. The main cause of the earthquake damage seen in the 1999 earthquake was unregistered buildings and structures that did not meet building codes. To address these problems, we decided to establish a building inspection commission. It will be formed in October and work to prevent major earthquake damage,” he said.
Meanwhile, in China, a 50-page draft of the National Development and Reform Commission’s (NDRC’s) post-quake recovery plan has been posted online in both English and Chinese for public input, Xinhua reported.
An NDRC press officer said the State Council would make great efforts to gather suggestions from the international community, especially from people with experience of post-quake reconstruction.
The NDRC draft, released on Wednesday, estimated reconstruction could cost 1 trillion yuan ($147 billion), equal to Sichuan province’s total economic output in 2007.
PHOTOGRAPH: Devastation in Turkey, 1999. Courtesy of Kandilli Observatory & Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI), Boðaziçi University.
